White Smoke: Who Will Be the Next Pope? A Look at the Papal Conclave of 2025
The passing of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, has set the stage for one of the Catholic Church’s most secretive and fascinating events: the papal conclave. With the world watching, 138 cardinals will soon gather in the Sistine Chapel to choose the next leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. But predicting the next pope is no easy task. As the Italian saying goes, *“He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”* The outcome is uncertain, shaped by the Church’s needs, global politics, and the mysterious dynamics among the cardinals. Let’s dive into the process, the leading candidates, and what might influence the historic decision expected in mid-May 2025.
The Conclave: A Sacred and Secretive Process
The conclave, set to begin 15–20 days after Pope Francis’s death, is a centuries-old tradition steeped in ritual. The 138 cardinal electors—all under 80 years old—will vote in secret ballots, needing a two-thirds majority to elect the new pope. With four voting rounds per day, the process typically lasts 2–3 weeks. Black smoke from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney signals no decision; white smoke announces a new pope. Of the electors, 110 were appointed by Francis, giving his progressive vision significant influence. But surprises are common, and the conclave’s secrecy ensures no one truly knows what will unfold. For a deeper look at the process, check out [Vatican News](https://www.vaticannews.va/en.html).
The Frontrunners: Who Are the “Papabili”?
While no one can predict the outcome, several cardinals stand out as potential successors, or *papabili*, based on their prominence, ideology, and global influence. Here’s a rundown of the top contenders, drawn from analyses by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/), and [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/).
1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, Age 70)
– **Who He Is**: The Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat and a moderate ally of Pope Francis. He’s navigated complex issues like the Vatican’s agreement with China on bishop appointments.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: His experience, Italian roots, and ability to appeal to both progressive and conservative cardinals make him a frontrunner. Bookmakers often list him as the top bet.
– **Challenges**: Some conservatives criticize his liberal leanings and the China deal, while his Vatican insider status might not excite those wanting an outsider.
– **Odds**: High—Parolin is a safe, steady choice to carry forward Francis’s legacy.
2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, Age 67)
– **Who He Is**: Known for his charisma, Tagle is Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization and a former Manila archbishop. He champions Francis’s progressive focus on social justice and inclusion.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: Young, media-savvy, and from Asia—a region with growing Catholic populations—Tagle could make history as the first Asian pope. His 3:1 betting odds reflect strong support.
– **Challenges**: His liberal views may alienate conservatives, and his limited Vatican experience could be a hurdle.
– **Odds**: Strong, especially if the conclave seeks a bold, global shift.
3. Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, Age 76)
– **Who He Is**: A prominent African cardinal, Turkson focuses on peace and social justice but leans conservative. He’s served in key Vatican roles, including the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: Africa’s rising Catholic population makes Turkson a symbol of the Church’s future. He could be the first African pope in centuries.
– **Challenges**: At 76, his age is a concern, and his conservative stance may clash with Francis’s progressive electors.
– **Odds**: Moderate, boosted by Africa’s influence but limited by age.
4. Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, Age 72)
– **Who He Is**: Budapest’s archbishop and a canon law expert, Erdo is a conservative who’s built ties with Francis’s progressive wing. He’s multilingual, including fluent Italian.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: His European background and compromise candidacy appeal to those seeking stability. He’s a bridge between ideological factions.
– **Challenges**: His 2015 opposition to Francis’s refugee policies raised eyebrows, and he lacks Tagle’s charisma.
– **Odds**: Moderate—a solid but not standout choice.
5. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo, Age 65)
– **Who He Is**: Kinshasa’s archbishop and a leading African voice, Ambongo is a conservative who’s pushed for peace in Africa but opposed Francis’s same-sex blessings policy.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: Young and representing Africa’s Catholic boom, he appeals to traditionalists seeking a shift from Francis’s reforms.
– **Challenges**: His conservative views may not sit well with Francis’s progressive electors.
– **Odds**: Moderate, with potential if conservatives rally.
6. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, Age 69)
– **Who He Is**: Bologna’s archbishop and a Francis appointee, Zuppi is known for peace missions (e.g., Ukraine) and progressive views, including openness to the LGBTQ+ community.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: His Italian background, pastoral approach, and alignment with Francis make him a strong continuity candidate.
– **Challenges**: His progressive stance may face conservative pushback, and he lacks deep Vatican experience.
– **Odds**: Moderate to high, especially for Francis loyalists.
7. Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France, Age 66)
– **Who He Is**: Marseille’s archbishop and a rising star, Aveline organized a 2023 Mediterranean Church conference attended by Francis. He leans progressive.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: Young and tied to Francis’s social justice focus, he’d be a historic French pope—the first since the 14th century.
– **Challenges**: Limited Italian fluency and Vatican experience are significant drawbacks.
– **Odds**: Lower but worth watching.
8. Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta, Age 68)
– **Who He Is**: Head of the Synod of Bishops, Grech has embraced Francis’s reforms, including greater acceptance of LGBTQ+ Catholics, after a conservative start.
– **Why He’s a Contender**: His Vatican role and synodal focus align with Francis’s vision. Malta’s small size adds a unique angle.
– **Challenges**: His low global profile and Malta’s tiny Catholic base limit his chances.
– **Odds**: Low but a possible dark horse.
## Other Names to Watch
– **Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (USA, Age 76)**: A polarizing traditionalist, Burke is a long-shot due to his clashes with Francis’s reforms.
– **Cardinal Mykola Bychok (Ukraine, Age 45)**: The youngest elector, he’s symbolic but too inexperienced.
– **Non-Cardinal Possibility**: The conclave could, in theory, choose a non-cardinal (e.g., a bishop), as in 1294, but this is highly unlikely.
What Will Shape the Choice?
The next pope will emerge from a complex interplay of factors:
1. **Francis’s Legacy**: With most electors appointed by Francis, candidates like Parolin, Tagle, or Zuppi, who share his progressive vision, have an edge. But conservatives may push back on issues like same-sex blessings or clergy abuse reforms.
2. **Global Shift**: Francis diversified the conclave, with more cardinals from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This boosts the odds of a non-European pope, though Italians like Parolin remain strong due to Vatican tradition.
3. **Ideological Balance**: The new pope must unite progressive and conservative factions. Moderates like Parolin or compromise figures like Erdo could bridge the gap.
4. **Age and Health**: Cardinals often favor younger candidates (60s or early 70s) for longer reigns, giving Tagle and Ambongo an advantage over Turkson.
5. **Global Context**: The Church’s role in growing regions like Africa, relations with China, and responses to conflicts (e.g., Ukraine) will matter. Diplomats like Parolin or peace advocates like Zuppi could shine.
Why It’s So Hard to Predict
History shows that “papabili” don’t always win. Popes like John XXIII (1958) and John Paul II (1978) were surprises, chosen for fresh perspectives. The 2025 conclave could follow suit, especially with Francis’s diverse electors. Plus, the need for Italian fluency and Vatican savvy gives insiders like Parolin an edge, while the push for a non-European pope could elevate Tagle or Turkson.
The Likely Outcome
If betting odds and expert analyses are any guide, **Cardinal Pietro Parolin** is the frontrunner, thanks to his diplomatic skill, moderate stance, and Italian roots. He’s a safe bet to stabilize the Church while continuing Francis’s reforms. **Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle** is a close second, with his progressive vision and potential to make history as an Asian pope. Others like Turkson, Erdo, Ambongo, or Zuppi are in the mix, but a surprise candidate could still emerge. As for me you heard it here firsts. I say they vote Zuppi and he will choose the name Peter.
As the conclave approaches, the world awaits the white smoke and the words *“Habemus Papam”* (“We have a pope”). Who will it be? Only the cardinals—and time—will tell.
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What do you think about the next pope? Share your thoughts below, and follow for updates as the conclave unfolds!